Italian On December 2010, Tunisia entered first in what became known as “Arab Spring”. Quickly it took hold in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, but quite soon this movement failed. Very few may be defined as success stories. Here a very interesting report from the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) that follows up 8 years after. In which direction Tunisia and Algeria will proceed by autumn, the one under the pressure of inflation and unemployment, the second with the urgent need to adopt a strategy to compete in the area and maintain stability? What will happen in Libya, still divided into hostile factions? What is the situation in Morocco?
In a series of essential instant frameworks, Haim Malka (CSIS) photographed the emerging situations in those States, highlighting the role of the three great powers: U.S.A., China and Russia. The USA of Trump being folding “out of position to both protect its interests and benefit from opportunities”, and the other two countries in an expansive phase. Interesting to read how China, with phenomenal investment in local infrastructure, is fitting across North Africa. In this interconnected and complex geopolitical puzzle, which weight will then street protests, Salafist terrorism, illegal migration to Europe have? Malka tells us that such phenomena will not be secondary in determining future local political structures and their stability.
We would like to add that Russia has already demonstrated unlawfully melding in many referenda and elections mistresses of various Nations, European and African, to pursue its own interests (see Agenda America Extra n° 1).
In this dense framework of unknowns, however, Malka stresses some positive trends: a greater freedom of expression and pluralism in Tunisia, Morocco’s economic development with the Tangier-Med port complex, and an impressive manufacturing complex. Finally, a major public debate in almost all those countries on the actual responsibility of the rulers. And if the U.S. Government does not actively will fit into this Maghreb framework, suggests Malka, it will quickly become irrelevant
About the Authors
Dr. Haim Malka: is a senior fellow and deputy director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C..
Dr. Alberto Nathan Corcos: Alberto Nathan Corcos is a freelance. He follows Mediterranean and Middle East issues for the US-ltaly Global Affairs Forum.
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